Robert “Beto” O’Rourke wants to win Texas. One county at a time. His strategy of small town town halls and the refusal of PAC money is drawing eyeballs from all over the state and nation. Beto is a congressman from El Paso running against Ted Cruz in the upcoming midterm for the US Senate. Despite all the interest, does he have a shot or is this all a Lone Star mirage?

O’Rourke is an Irish-American, 45 years old and went to Columbia University. He is a native son of El Paso as well. O’Rourke has adopted the name Beto since he was very young instead of the Anglo Name Robert. This already caused some controversy in the race with Rafael Edward “Ted” Cruz making fun of his name in campaign radio ads. Beto hasn’t always had a clean past though. He’s been arrested for both drunk driving and breaking and entering, but he never went to jail for either. O’Rourke has served in the House of Representatives since 2012 while being on the committee on Armed Services and Veterans’ Affairs. Beto typically has a very progressive agenda for a state like Texas too. He believes in single-payer healthcare, gun control and a woman’s right to choose. His agenda begs the question: how much of a chance does he really have in a heavily gerrymandered state which easily went to Donald Trump in 2016?

The answer really depends on the polls one looks at. According to Real Clear Politics, the race is leaning toward Cruz while an Axios poll has O’Rourke ahead. Cruz got double the amount the amount of votes O’Rourke did in their respective primaries even though Democratic primary participation was double what it was last time. This fact probably bodes better for House races in wealthy suburban districts where Democratic voters outpaced Republicans in places like Dallas or Houston. For example, Pete Sessions in Highland Park’s District 32 is most likely in for a very competitive contest against who will most likely be challenger Colin Allred after his runoff election. A blue wave probably won’t come to Texas, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t a few surprises in store.

Beto O’Rourke has an interesting backstory and has the potential to be at very least competitive in the upcoming election. Success will depends on the independent, Latino and unsatisfied GOP vote who could flip the outcome in a Democrat’s favor. The good news for O’Rourke is he is running against a man who is hated nationally and in the senate. If there’s one thing 2016 has taught anyone though, it is that to predict anything is foolish.